“Online Betting Sites Predict Next Pope”

Betting on who the next Pope will be has become the latest rage at online betting sites, and given the accuracy with which online bettors predicted the victor in the Bush/Kerry presidential race, we ought not be surprised if they get this one right as well.

Betting on the outcome of the papacy is not exactly like betting on horses, and yet one site whose business is primarily horseracing seems up to the task. BetFair, a site which operates as a betting exchange where players can bet against each other, has for the last 18 months been accepting wagers on who the next Pope will be. While betting activity was slow at the start, it has picked up recently, to the tune of $70,000 in wagers, according to BetFair. And this, they say, is only the beginning. Another site, Pinnaclesports.com, does other sites one better by not only allowing predictions of the next Pope but also other, more specific predictions as well. For instance, how old will the next Pope be? What will his nationality be? How many days will it take to pick him?

Interestingly, though not surprisingly, there has been fairly little betting activity on this issue at casinos in Las Vegas and Atlantic City. With no American cardinals in the running, there is less interest in the topic. Not that this consideration has stopped the Irish – whose Cardinal Dougal Maguire doesn’t stand a chance at becoming the next pontiff – from placing bets.

At the moment predictions look something like this. Italy’s Dionigi Tettamanzi is the favored cardinal – a fact reflected both on Paddypwer.com and in the polls, which have him as a 9 to 2 to an 11 to 4 odds on favorite to win – followed by Francis Arinze of Nigeria with a 15 to 2 rating. Next, with 8 to 1 ratings, come O. Rodiguez Maradiaga of Honduras and Claudio Hummes of Brazil. J. Ratizinger of Germany comes in at 29 to 1.